Dreaming of Moshiach

Monday, January 07, 2008

Food Prices Soaring Rapidly

By Elisabeth Rosenthal; International Herald Tribune

ROME: In an "unforeseen and unprecedented" shift, the world food supply is dwindling rapidly and food prices are soaring to historic levels, the top food and agriculture official of the United Nations warned Monday.

The changes created "a very serious risk that fewer people will be able to get food," particularly in the developing world, said Jacques Diouf, head of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

The agency's food price index rose by more than 40 percent this year, compared with 9 percent the year before -- a rate that was already unacceptable, he said. New figures show that the total cost of foodstuffs imported by the neediest countries rose 25 percent, to $107 million, in the last year.

At the same time, reserves of cereals are severely depleted, FAO records show. World wheat stores declined 11 percent this year, to the lowest level since 1980. That corresponds to 12 weeks of the world's total consumption -- much less than the average of 18 weeks consumption in storage during the period 2000-2005. There are only 8 weeks of corn left, down from 11 weeks in the earlier period.

Prices of wheat and oilseeds are at record highs, Diouf said Monday. Wheat prices have risen by $130 per ton, or 52 percent, since a year ago. U.S. wheat futures broke $10 a bushel for the first time Monday, the agricultural equivalent of $100 a barrel oil. (Page 16)

Diouf blamed a confluence of recent supply and demand factors for the crisis, and he predicted that those factors were here to stay. Demand for grain is increasing with the world population, and more is diverted to feed cattle as the population of upwardly mobile meat-eaters grows.

"We're concerned that we are facing the perfect storm for the world's hungry," said Josette Sheeran, executive director of the World Food Program, in a telephone interview. She said that her agency's food procurement costs had gone up 50 percent in the past 5 years and that some poor people are being "priced out of the food market."

To make matters worse, high oil prices have doubled shipping costs in the past year, putting enormous stress on poor nations that need to import food as well as the humanitarian agencies that provide it.

"You can debate why this is all happening, but what's most important to us is that it's a long-term trend, reversing decades of decreasing food prices," Sheeran said.

Climate specialists say that the vulnerability will only increase as further effects of climate change are felt. "If there's a significant change in climate in one of our high production areas, if there is a disease that effects a major crop, we are in a very risky situation," said Mark Howden of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Canberra.

Already "unusual weather events," linked to climate change -- such as droughts, floods and storms -- have decreased production in important exporting countries like Australia and Ukraine, Diouf said.

"In the U.S., Australia, and Europe, there's a very substantial capacity to adapt to the effects on food -- with money, technology, research and development," Howden said. "In the developing world, there isn't."

Diouf suggested that all countries and international agencies would have to "revisit" agricultural and aid policies they had adopted "in a different economic environment." For example, with food and oil prices approaching record, it may not make sense to send food aid to poorer countries, but instead to focus on helping farmers grow food locally.

Francesco Tubiello, of Columbia University Earth Institute, "Many people assume that we will never have a problem with food production on a global scale, but there is a strong potential for negative surprises."

Michael Mann, a spokesman for the EU agriculture commission. "We saw this coming to a certain extent, but we are surprised at how quickly it is happening."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chazal in Masechet Sota prophecies about the days preceding the Geulah:
חוצפא יסגא, והיוקר יאמיר, הגפן תתן פריה, והיין ביוקר. מלכות תיהפך למינות – ואין תוכחת. בית ועד יהיה לזנות, והגליל ייחרב, והגולן יישום, ואנשי הגבול יסובבו מעיר לעיר, ולא יחוננו, וחכמת סופרים תסרח, ויראי חטא יימאסו, והאמת תהיה נעדרת. נערים פני זקנים ילבינו. זקנים יעמדו בפני קטנים. בן מנוול אב, בת קמה באמה, כלה בחמותה. אויבי איש אנשי ביתו. פני הדור כפני הכלב... הבן אינו מתבייש מאביו... !
Chutzpa will multiply
Costliness will increase
Grapevine will produce its grapes
And the wine will be expensive....

Labels:

| 0 comments

0 Comments:


והיה השם למלך על כל הארץ, ביום ההוא יהיה השם אחד - ושמו אחד ישתבח שמו לעד לנצח נצחים בכל העולמות Blessed is His name for eternity in all worlds אין עוד מלבדו